After nearly 30 years of rapid development, China's petroleum and chemical industry from the development of high-speed growth stage into the rapid growth in the new normal. Achievements at the same time, also is facing innovation deficiency, excess production capacity, environmental pressures and other test. Growth decline in the traditional petrochemical industry development, the contradiction in excess capacity, elements to promote increasingly weakened and to further strengthen the restriction of resources and environment under the new situation, mainly rely on the extensive development of resources investment, scale expansion unsustainable model, petrochemical industry must rethink the future development of the ideas and methods.
2016 was "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" the start of the implementation, and promote structural reform crucial year. In this context, China's energy chief editor XieShuJiang dialogue China petrochemical association vice-chairman concurrently secretary general Zhao Jungui, supply side is petrochemical industry reform, industry innovation and education to private investment in petrochemical field.
Investment slow upgrade traditional industry should not be ignored
XieShuJiang: according to the latest data of petrochina and sinopec, the average daily sales of refined petroleum products in May, 38100 tons less than in April fell 1.34% year on year. Do you think it is a long-term trend or short-term phenomenon?
Zhao Jungui: overall economic growth is slowing, the related industry investment dropped, the process of heavy reduction, engineering vehicles use less, refined petroleum products are mainly diesel consumption decreases. Oil business investment fell at the same time, but also the industry a judgment, and thinking about the future oil market. Especially the development of new energy vehicles, such as electric cars directly influence the future oil market, the trend of the future mission of oil may be used as raw materials, more than fuel, or this would be the result of the adjustment of energy structure.
XieShuJiang: since this year, China's private investment growth over double-digit growth, and accelerate the slide, year-on-year growth to fall from 10% last year so far years ago 3.9% of 5 months, years of low. Petrochemicals investment situation how?
Zhao Jungui: from the point of petrochemical association latest data, in May, petroleum and chemical industry the industry of investment in fixed assets continue to fall, but at a narrow. In the first five months of, the exploitation of oil and gas investment fell 16.9% year on year, narrowed 10.6% than in the past four months; Chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing investment fell 4.2%, reduce 2.2%.
The overall look, oil chemical industry investment weak situation there is no obvious change, but is now falling signs of slowing. Petroleum and chemical industries benefit differentiation obvious, but on the whole maintained good momentum. The industry profits decline, mainly by the upstream, refining and chemical industry profits from restorative growth, is expected in mid and late in the second quarter, industry profit growth will continue this pattern.
XieShuJiang: do you think industry investment growth decline and in low? Is the market or technical reasons?
Zhao Jungui: the reason that cause the loss of the current industry investment should be various,
One is the international oil prices are low, as a direct result of the upstream investment greatly reduced;
Secondly, the traditional large petrochemical products widespread overcapacity, many corporate profitability has fallen sharply, at the same time, enterprise financing costs, labor costs, logistics cost, safety and environmental protection costs have increased rigidity, business investment will is not strong;
Three is the insufficient enterprise technical reserves, the innovation ability is not strong. Private chemical enterprise in our country history longer but more than 30 years, mostly in recent 10 years in the chemical industry grew up in the process of rapid growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, the accumulation of capital and technology are very weak, make some project funding and technology do not match completely, also causes investment slow;
In addition, the new high technology products to market the brand requirements, branding also need some time to test. Production, for instance, Chinese companies and multinational companies in the same high-grade materials, Chinese enterprises developed at the same time, the price may be lower, but manufacturers will most likely still tend to choose to have word of mouth, multinational company products. The more high-grade products, is not sensitive to the price, more strict with the technique and technology is higher.
I think there is a structural adjustment of industry falling investment objective reasons, the most fundamental reason is we haven't set up technical innovation system, innovation of industry growth in the supportive enough, may even be rich but nowhere is available.
XieShuJiang: private enterprises in the petrochemical industry and investment opportunities?
Zhao Jungui: the traditional industry of excess reversed transmission industry economic transformation is an objective historical stage of development, the current industry investment dropped, we can neither panic, helpless, also can't to see the hope of petrochemical industry.
One is the traditional petrochemical industry transformation. China not only is the world's petrochemical production and consumption power, China for 30 years to build the world's most complete industrial chain of petrochemical materials, huge petrochemical market potential is our advantage and we also build the optimization of petrochemical materials, the green industry, especially with the help of a new generation of information technology to upgrade traditional petrochemical industry still has great investment value.
2 it is material of petrochemical industry, specialty and intensification. Increasingly mature as traditional petrochemical industry, petrochemical industry chain, high-end, specialty and fine development will become the important direction of the transformation and upgrading of petrochemical industry. Especially with the overall promotion of the national economy, aerospace, high-speed rail, electronic information, the rapid development of emerging industries such as health industry, are in urgent need of the corresponding chemical new material, a variety of specialty chemicals. Chemical new materials such as fine chemical field, often have the characteristics of small bulk, high value-added, very suitable for development of private enterprise investment.
Three is "the green environmental protection of petrochemical products. As petrochemical product is becoming more and more into the people life, from industrial raw materials into a more consumer goods, to produce more safe and environmentally friendly chemical products has become people's new expectations, can become popular innovation, all key areas of business.
Four is the petrochemical industry internationalization development. Until today in development of China's petrochemical industry, upstream crude oil resources are heavily dependent on the international market, the downstream petrochemical products have been deep into the international market, the trend of the international operation irreversible, and only take on, to speed up the pace of capital to go out, to expand the Chinese petrochemical enterprises to develop the new realm of petrochemical industry new height, creating new opportunities for international investment and cooperation.
Fifth, petrochemical industry structure adjustment. Due to a variety of reasons, in the history of Chinese private small and scattered petrochemical chemical enterprise scale, intensive degree is not high of the problem is not solved for a long time, the formation of overcapacity market reversed transmission mechanism, provides a historical opportunity of industry merger and reorganization, timely adopt policies, standards, financial and other means, make full use of the hand of the market driving force, upgrade the industrial structure in petrochemical industry, it also creates many new investment opportunities.
XieShuJiang: petrochemical industry overcapacity in many areas are very prominent. For attention to whether the industry's future development will be back on the growth path, what do you think should be how to do?
Zhao Jungui: personally, I think, China's petroleum and chemical industry has not yet reached the peak. Petrochemical industry is currently a structural rather than cyclical excess problem. Petrochemical industry in the traditional industry is the only in the field of deficit situation. The first five months of this year, China has reached 24.02 million tons of organic chemical raw material imports, increase 31.6%, mixed aromatics imports 5.56 million tons, increased 2.4 times. High-end new materials import dependency is higher, some of which have been seriously restricts the development of new industry in China.
The future how to change, I think one of the most important is to follow the law of market and industry law of development, the government, enterprises and industry association respectively for positioning, break all hinder the progress of industry institutional hurdles, under the fair legal environment, stimulate vitality element and the power, maximum release petrochemical productivity and innovation.
Is the most important thing for the government to change function, must keep the law of the tube to the bottom line, the greatest degree to build the legal environment of fair competition and market environment;
To the enterprise to firm the confidence in the new idea of green development, develops, innovation and development of new mechanisms;
The industry association to restore the heart of the public welfare, industry and improve the public service ability, improve the level of the organization and coordination of the industry.
Objectively speaking, China's real economy in transition, and the depth of the market economy development that meet the needs of industry management system and service system and other supporting soft power construction also to reshape and transformation, and may be the key to the success of China's real economy transformation.
Innovation and parallel smooth reform
XieShuJiang: enterprises lack of independent innovation, there is no advantage products and feature technology, can be a problem. In the face of complex macroeconomic situation, petrochemical industry will face greater operating pressure?
Zhao Jungui: business investment decline is representation, root cause or industrial structure problems. At the current situation, the government and enterprises of avoid by all means get rich quick. To solve the problem of oil chemical industry long-term development, not so simple "surgery", but need to step by step as the doctor of traditional Chinese medicine "did". Develop and market environment, promoting industrial quality is never easy, must be a gradual process. The improvement of quality of workers, the construction of intelligent facilities will take time, we must grasp the new characteristics of the new normal, focus on the overall innovation of the industry and improve the competition ability, stage goal and the long-term goal, the combination of steady hand growth and restructuring as "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" the two major tasks for the development of industry, to promote the traditional industry and cultivate strategic emerging industries as two main attack directions, the two big innovation drive and deepen the reform as a driving force. As long as perseverance, for a long time for work, China's petrochemical industry will have a bright future.
XieShuJiang: in recent years, in the face of traditional economic downward pressure and momentum, the government did not implement the "strong stimulation", but put forward "pipes" as the key tools of macroeconomic control, strive to promote structural reform, especially the supply side structural reforms, fully arouse the enthusiasm of market main body. Oil and gas system reform has been widely attention, we noticed that in the relevant departments of the work arrangement, reform of oil and gas in vocabulary is the "steady progress", and for electric power system reform is "actively promote", does this mean that the strength and pace of reform is different?
Zhao Jungui: oil and gas resources status, properties, complex and important international correlation degree is high, is closely related to the departments of national economy and people's life.
China's oil and gas system reform must be proceeding from its national conditions, respect history, fully consider the market main body and consumer psychology to bear ability, respect for the reform of the market main body enthusiasm, do not simply copying foreign mechanism. Because of management system of the market system of our country and foreign historical process and conditions of the formation, a completely different legal regulation still to be further strengthen, credit system and market conditions are not mature, derivative could be "the water". Market economy is an economy of negotiation of contract, through communication and negotiation, interest game, seeks the greatest common divisor, is the norm to solve the problem of the market.
Like any areas of reform, reform also will encounter all sorts of contradictions and problems of oil and gas, appear different opinions and Suggestions, the key is to establish the legalization of stakeholder consultations communication mechanism, strive to build consensus, largest in understanding and tolerance, disadvantages, steady progress.