Over the past 20 years, the rise and fall of the global oil market is closely related to a person's act: Saudi Arabian oil mining resources minister ali bin ibrahim naimi. If the old owners greenspan was an indicator of the world's financial markets, Mr Naimi is anchored the oil market.
Saudi Arabia in the two monarch, an octogenarian naimi still held, because of his in the aspect of using oil lever Saudi national interests has always been effective.
For more than a year, oil prices remain low, as the world's largest oil exporter, to control a quarter of the world crude oil reserves in Saudi Arabia insisted on not lose, or sometimes a falling market, further helped to push the oil price has plummeted. Just under the command naimi seemingly calm, also hidden "leader" of oil Saudi deeply anxious for a new world pattern.
"The persistence of the" no production "behind"
In the middle of the middle of September to November 2014 in two months, crude oil prices fell 21%, a new low for four years, $2 trillion worth of global oil market waiting for Mr Naimi boost confidence, however, although he attend various industries meeting as usual, has been on hold.
How much this let some people down. Once, Mr Naimi vigorous efforts to turn the tide in times of crisis: in 1998, the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis in 2008, under his baton, only Saudi Arabia followed the organization of petroleum exporting countries (Opec) members are production, oil prices rallied immediately. This time, Mr Naimi chose to "let go".
On November 27, 2014, the Opec meeting in Vienna, naimi production proposal to veto the most members, advocates to keep production and push oil prices to lower, forcing the high cost of crude oil suppliers to exit the market.
Decision immediately: the next day, oil prices fell another 10%. From 2011 to 2014 years, as the benchmark brent crude oil price keep $110 a barrel, after months of continuous tumbled, fell to $50 a barrel in January 2015.
In November, according to officials attending the meeting behind closed doors during the meeting, Mr Naimi warned: "friends" constantly to keep the Opec countries market share, to avoid being new rising rival, the United States take status of shale oil suppliers, don't have to be carried cut. So, the cost of mining higher oil shale in the low oil price situation more from consumers.
On America's shale oil industry, however, is the short-term goal, Mr Naimi and his behind the Saudi royal family have more long-term concern: growing climate change issues and perennial high crude oil prices have low energy production and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, development of renewable energy to become a big trend, demand for oil will one day peak, and then all the way down, and the day is likely to be no longer than the Saudi economy dependent on oil arrival at an early date. If the world is change the habits of consumption of oil, for nearly half of GDP comes from Saudi oil exports, is undoubtedly a fatal blow.
On some occasions, Mr Naimi admitted that Saudi Arabia to the trend of The Times. As early as four years ago, when he faced the media, he said: "the peak demand far earlier than supply." In Riyadh in a speech in April 2015, he was more explicit: "some people are trying to restrict the use of fossil fuels international agreement, in the long run it will harm the interests of the producers", so, Saudi Arabia will firmly and resolutely and opposition to "put the oil consumption marginalized" forces stand together.
"To" peak demand "anxiety"
According to the "wikipedia demystified" site exposure, according to state department cables as early as ten years ago, Mr Naimi is to show us in Saudi Arabia for the anxiety of "stability" oil demand. James Smith in 2010 America's ambassador to Saudi Arabia to the U.S. energy secretary Steven chu's then a memo also indicated: "the Saudi officials worried about climate change agreement reached their income will be seriously affected. As a result, they are no longer discuss the peak value of oil reserves, only care about the peak demand."
At the beginning of this century, the supply of some geologists and environmentalists peak theory caused wide public concern. They think, the supply of crude oil in keep rising curve peak, after a century and a half after this will not be able to meet the growing demand. 2005 oil analyst Matthew simmons book also predicted that once started mass production, Saudi Arabia will herald a global supply of crude oil into irreversible decline in orbit. But Mr Naimi was rejected this prediction, Saudi Arabia pledged to increase the output.
It is true. Today's Saudi oil output more than a decade ago, the Saudi oil fields with cutting-edge technology, is famous for its luxury facilities. But at the same time, the United States since the exploitation of oil shale oil production and whirlwind rise, less than 6 million, 2010 barrels of daily production, has amounted to 9 million barrels by the end of 2014.
In fact, Saudi officials never worry about which day oil demand. Peak than supply, they think the problem is a more pressing demand peak.
Muhammad sarbanes-oxley in 1988 to 2013, Mr Naimi's senior economic adviser, also is the chief representative of Saudi Arabia to participate in climate change negotiations. And he said, before the slump in oil prices this round, Saudi officials a calculated popular: fastest global oil demand will peak in 2025. Allowing a drop in oil prices, peak may be able to come late.
Merrill lynch analysis according to the report, if oil prices remain the level of $70 and $60 a barrel, needs the time of arrival of the peak point can drag on for at least five years. For renewable energy industry and environmentalists, it is a bad news, but for Saudi Arabia and other major oil producer, a slump in the first four years more than 100 dollars a barrel of high oil prices is the bad omens. Because at that time, high oil prices will force emerging economies to speed up to energy conservation and efficient production, energy diversification development path, and they would expect the biggest oil exporter.
America, head of commodity research at citigroup, energy economist Ed moss said, in the summer of 2014, Saudi officials suddenly found that China's oil demand growth is clearly slowing, almost "panic". Moss said, Mr Naimi aware of China's "in the past that kind of energy intensive behavior will change".
, according to the relevant data from 2008 to 2014, China's petrol consumption per unit of GDP fell by 18%, low cost fuel also gradually replaced. Diesel consumption after ten years of rapid growth, in 2013 and 2014 consecutive decline. The international energy agency, thinks the change and China promoting natural gas vehicles, therefore to downgrade its forecast for China's oil demand in 2019.
"If I were in naimi position, I would like him to do so (not production)," moss said.
【 】 life associated with oil
The 80 - year - old Mr Naimi witness, even "processing" since world war ii all kinds of volatile oil market. He said a few years of going to retire, but the situation once again pushing him to the forefront.
The old man was born in 1935 in Saudi Arabia's eastern provinces to a nomadic family, mother is a bedouin; 8 years old end of nomadic life, be sent to the provincial capital of mann and his father live together, oil company, founded in May of a school.
May oil company belonged to the United States, in the 1970 s by Saudi Arabia to state-owned, Saudi Arabian oil company.
At the age of 12, naimi replace die brother suddenly, when the letter may oil company operator's, soon with skilled typing ability. He later promoted to university students described his own legend experience: a day in the office building corridor, its boss, he ran into the United States talked about planning for the future, the newborn calves are not afraid of the tiger young had answered: "Sir, I hope one day to be able to sit on you to this place." Boss responded: "so, you need to accept a good education."
Naimi became the boss of the cultivating object: under the funding of the company, he finished high school to Beirut, Lebanon, and then read the sea at the university of Pennsylvania in the United States, and then to Stanford university to get a master's degree in geology. After graduation, he was promoted in the company, in 1984 to become the company's first President of Saudi Arabia origin, four years later when the CEO.
, Europe and the United States economic growth slow, oil consumption dropped, then the Saudi oil minister ahmed zaki, magni to slash production, the oil prices all the way down, fell to $10 a barrel, and some non Opec members and "cheating" on the quota of the chance to grab market producers. This error caused the mani was fired in 1986, Saudi Arabia sharply, then at a low price strategy to make up lost ground.
This crisis let naimi to take. He saw the oil-producing countries without work, the consequences of Saudi production cuts alone. In Berlin in March last year, he also mentioned the lesson: "we won't make a mistake like that."
Naimi was named in 1995's oil minister, place a sit for ten years. Although later dealt a blow, he also is not never made mistakes. In November 1997, Mr Naimi only seen an astonishing growth of China's economy, regardless of the Asian financial crisis is fermentation, persuade Opec members to increase production. After two years, oil prices dropped by 50%.
When dealing with western energy companies, he also left a stain. From 1985 to 2003 Saudi Arabia oil company development and production of project sede DE hou, told bloomberg markets magazine, 1998, then crown prince abdullah hope to attract more foreign investment in the development of the natural gas field in Saudi Arabia, naimi is leave the best natural gas fields with Saudi aramco, playing to have investment intention foreign companies such as exxonmobil some scarce land reserves.
American reporter Steve cole in 2012 published "private empire: exxon mobil and American power," recorded in the book, Riyadh talks with mobil oil in California in 2003, the results of discord. Mobil CEO lee Raymond's then put forward the experts questioned gas reserves, Mr Naimi said that is a bargain, this is the Raymond gas is broken. "I was very unhappy," he said to cole.
"Serving the" ultimate goal ""
Gradually, however, Mr Naimi blunt and sharp style established his popularity in Opec.
Sparked the us invasion of Iraq in 2003, the oil market turmoil, although Saudi Arabia opposed the invasion, but Mr Naimi promise production action during the war effectively stabilize the market; In 2008, the high price spike in oil prices to $147 a barrel, Mr Naimi is to resist the pressure to increase the underpricing, maintain production. He constantly told U.S. officials, supply is adequate, financial speculators are soaring oil prices.
But the old minister in the new round of oil shocks, "capricious", he insist on not output cuts hurt Opec unity. To finance this strain of venezuela and trapped for sanctions against Iran, battered especially for oil prices continued to fall, so dissatisfied with the Saudi decision quite a lot.
Actually, even for more than $700 billion worth of Saudi oil reserves, oil prices continue to slump is a blow to the economy. For a long time, oil revenues are Saudi Arabia, supporting complete free medical care, education, social security system as well as the main source of massive foreign aid money.
Saudi Arabia's position until recently showed a bit. In mid-february this year, the world's major oil exporters to reach consensus, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Russia and venezuela agreed to by freezing oil production at the levels of January. But if all producers cannot force production, limit production, oil prices have rallied co., LTD.
Under the former king abdullah to retain, naimi delay retirement. After the old king died last January, the new king salman let naimi continue to stay on.
The old minister has been planning for retirement life. In his CEO or oil, the old king had commissioned him to start a university do talent pool for Saudi economic transformation. Now king abdullah university of science and technology has 220 professors, 2000 graduate students and to cultivate innovative talents of science and technology, to realize naimi to pledge a seminar in Washington in 2013: "our ultimate goal is to gradually reduce the dependence on oil revenues."