IHS Cambridge energy week in 2016, in addition to the attention of oil, the world's energy system reform and oil and gas development has become the focus of attention in the future. Compared with last year, the conference has three characteristics.
First, most of the attendees to oil more pessimistic, think oil prices in the short term is difficult to rebounded significantly. Can be found on the two participants will experience, the author generally, optimistic, instead of oil is not easy to rebound, because optimistic forecast oil prices will reduce the enterprise's response to lower oil prices. But pessimism, people's emphasis on low prices is beneficial to optimize reform measures actively, develop healthy industry sustainable development.
Second, in addition to the traditional oil companies, non-oil company representative noticeably increased, including some large companies, such as ge, dow chemical, Siemens and other companies, and some of the investment company. This shows that the oil industry is the industry's upstream and downstream business has produced important influence, caused the wide attention of the whole industry chain.
Third, to China attaches great importance to the sound. A total of five Chinese representative speech at the meeting, Daniel yergin, chairman of Cambridge energy weeks alone delegation met with Chinese oil, special oil on behalf of the group discussion in China, and hold the "China day" theme discussion.
In the face of the current situation, low oil prices of oil and gas industry supply side problems become the focus of attention, however, we should pay attention to problems of the demand side also, these two factors are cycle problem. Supply side was mainly affected by the oil industry cycle, and the demand side is mainly affected by the global economic cycle.
On the supply side, the rise in demand for oil will lead to tight supply, increase oil prices and attract a large number of investment, so as to increase oil production capacity, lead to oversupply. Technical progress of unconventional oil and gas field revolution will also increase the supply of oil and gas, and a certain impact to the conventional oil and gas market.
From the demand side, global macro economic cycle had a great influence on demand. At present, the economic trends of the world's major economies, such as represented by China's economic growth in emerging economies shift, to a certain extent, reduced the demand of oil and gas, a major impact on the demand side.
In the two cycle, economic cycle usually lasts longer, relatively short period of oil industry itself. Experts predict that the low oil price cycle will continue for a period of time, it will take about two to three years to bottom out. The IEA experts predict that by 2020 the oil price will rise to $80 a barrel, but it is difficult to reproduce rapidly rising oil prices and even reach more than $100 a barrel. As a result, the oil and gas industry and enterprises are actively thinking about how to spend the long low oil prices "cold winter".
Over the past 15 years, China's oil demand growth, oil consumption intensity and elasticity coefficient shows the characteristics of "three", the future of China's oil demand will remain in the low speed growth, oil consumption demand will present low growth, low consumption and low pollution characteristics.
Demand for oil is mainly influenced by economic development. We have confidence in China's economy, the economic structure transformation, China is in the process of industrial structure upgrade, China's economy will be continued and healthy development of the future of China's energy demand will continue to grow.
As China's economic transformation and upgrading, the future of China's oil demand elasticity and strength and extensive development before were different. The future China's oil demand is expected to present absolute quantity is higher, but to maintain in the low speed of the development of the situation. In other words, by 2020, 2020, considering the development of alternative energy, China's oil demand is expected to reach 608 million tons, 680 million tons, but demand growth will come from 6.4% of the "twelfth five-year" period, the period of "11th five-year plan" 4.2% to 2.4% by "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" period, and 1.1% between 2021 and 2030.
From the domestic oil supply and demand, China probably will continue easing domestic oil market in the future. From the supply side, due to China's refining capacity continues to increase, to the end of 2015, according to the calculation of rational utilization of oil demand and, in our country was already a surplus of refining capacity of about 100 million tons/year, conservative estimates that by 2020 refining capacity could reach more than 800 million tons/year. If consider amongs so many brands for crude oil, improve its utilization, in the next five years, China's product oil supply increment will far outweigh the incremental demand. This suggests that excess supply domestic oil market will continue to future market competition will be more intense, oil needs further optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.
In the field of natural gas, the future development will be mainly depends on policy making and business model. At present, due to the development of new energy and renewable energy is not yet mature, China still rely mainly on coal, electricity itself is not clean. For now, at least in new energy and renewable energy technology and market a breakthrough, able to bear the energy structure optimization, the burden of environmental governance, must belong to natural gas. Generally speaking, we for the development of natural gas, the future role and status in the field of energy in the future is full of confidence. China's oil economy institute of technology, is expected to strengthen prevention and control of atmospheric pollution and climate change in the current dual background, if the government can take more strict environmental protection policies, natural gas prices steadily promoting marketization process, China's gas demand is expected to reach 340 billion to 340 billion cubic meters, during the period of "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" average annual growth rate can reach 13.5%. However, if there is no policy force, especially the clean and efficient characteristics of natural gas has not been fully recognized, domestic supply of natural gas market will be easy.
At the meeting, from power, new energy, environmental protection, renewable energy conference speech guests increased significantly. It also suggests that, although the light of natural gas development in the future, but still faces many challenges, we should attach great importance to this.
Future oil and gas industry in China is still a important force driving global demand for oil and gas market, has an important role in the international energy market. We deal with the future development of China's oil and gas industry holds the confidence, at the same time, to face the challenge and twists and turns in the process of development. As a traditional oil and gas industry, on the one hand, to vigorously promote the national energy structure optimization, leaning to the represented by gas clean energy; On the other hand, to optimize the quality of our products and production cleaner, high-quality petroleum products. In addition, the oil industry itself should also in the process of production, energy saving and emission reduction for environmental management, clean energy production make greater contributions.