40 years after the the United States at the end of last year lifted the ban on exports of crude oil. Under the background of low oil prices and the global excess supply, does not favor the present U.S. crude oil export prospects, but in the long run, to lift the ban will be a far-reaching influence on the international crude oil market pattern.
In the expert opinion, the future of the Middle East and Russia in the crude oil market position will be challenged, and with the emergence of a strong dollar, U.S. crude oil flow, combined with the Wall Street financial funds, such as America's influence to the global oil market will intensify. In the future, our country needs to further enrich the crude oil import channels; At the same time, accelerate the construction of crude oil futures market in China, gradually improve voice in international crude oil market.
Export bans lifted, means U.S. crude oil can flow to the various markets around the world. But in the global excess supply of crude oil and oil under the shriveling of the downturn, in the short term, does not favor the prospect of U.S. crude oil exports.
The brookings institution, says Charles Mr Bingol, head of energy security project in the current situation, the United States to export crude oil are very few, it would only be confined to its neighboring countries and regions. He predicts that, even in the first quarter of 2017, the average daily may only 75000 barrels to 100000 barrels of crude oil exports, while the current global average daily consumption of more than 90 million barrels of crude.
Deborah Gordon, agreed that the ban on crude oil exports means that global oil supply were increased and could further depress international oil prices, but not by much. Because, the two benchmark brent crude oil prices, London and difference of the current oil prices in New York and the only about $2, plus freight, in the international market, U.S. crude compared with Africa, the Middle East and other property of crude oil is not competitive.
In the long run, U.S. crude oil into the circulation of the global market, will be further intensified competition among sellers on the international crude oil. In the future, in Europe, Asia, two major oil imports on the market, the market share of Russia and the Middle East are likely to be the United States had robbed, weaken. And the buyer may benefit for more choice.
International energy research agency platts energy global oil editorial director of rama, sami issa said, although the international oil prices fell more than 60% last year, but the crude oil output is growing, the production cost can be down to $25 a barrel of crude oil. Shale oil will not disappear because of the emergence of low oil prices, for now, shale oil reserves of about 60 years in the United States, at least in Texas in 100 years.
Along with the oil export bans lifted, the voice of America in the global oil market and added an important bargaining chip, its grip on the oil market will be further strengthened, by contrast, further challenged the traditional Middle East oil supremacy.
Now, the United States for the influence of the global oil market mainly reflects in the following several aspects.
The first big chip is the dollar. Dollar-denominated commodities such as oil and the change of the dollar index correlation is very large. On December 16, 2015, the federal reserve announced increases in interest rates, international oil prices fell nearly 5% on the same day.
The second chip is U.S. crude oil inventories and production. The United States is the world's largest consumer of oil, crude oil inventory changes reflects its oil consumption of cold and heat, is one of the important factors affecting international oil price movements.
The third largest chip is speculative funds represented by "Wall Street". As the pioneer of commodities, oil this product has very strong financial attributes. Operation of speculative funds contributed to the current international oil prices out of control.
The fourth big chip is in the hands of the New York crude oil futures prices. This is one of the world's two largest crude oil benchmark, it is also an important reference in North America, the crude oil pricing.
In addition to the above four factors, with us crude oil export ban, the United States from a net importer of crude oil into crude oil exporter, through exports can adjust the pressure of domestic production, relieving excess supply, more can directly affect the pattern of the global oil market.
In the expert opinion, lower U.S. crude oil imports and exports, is beneficial to our country: less competition with a buyer, have one more supplier. In addition, with the United States to strengthen control of crude oil market, from the perspective of national energy security, our country should also be prepared, to prevent the back foot.
Lily thinks that America is expected to become the world's major oil exporting countries in the future. Does this mean for our country, more diverse choices. Under the advance of economic, our country can be one of the crude oil as a source of supply of crude oil, increase energy, economic and trade exchanges with the United States. But at the same time, our country should speed up the construction of domestic crude oil futures market, gradually enhance the power in global energy market in China.