Even if again big, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil in 2016 bulls still have at least a lifeline can rely on, take positions "accelerated" in China.
In the industry point of view, China continues to absorb excess supply in overseas markets for oil from the long awaited 11-year lows provided support. In 2015, China has several times more than the United States as the world's largest crude oil importer. Oil prices tumbled at present, China is the opportunity to establish strategic oil reserves, especially the government to relax the private refineries after crude oil import restrictions, China's oil demand to rise further. China's crude oil import growth provided support for oil prices, which will help relieve excess supply of crude oil in the first half of 2016, international oil prices rebounded.
Chinese demand into crude oil bulls straws
According to a bloomberg survey including FGE and EnergyAspects seven energy consultancy, median, as the world's largest energy consumer, China's crude imports or will rise by 8% in 2016, to 7.2 million barrels a day on average.
In November 2015, according to Reuters, citing a report estimated that independent oil refinery is likely to get 1.6 million barrels a day of crude oil import quotas. By the end of October 2015, the Chinese government has awarded 11 refinery daily total import quotas of close to 1 million barrels. But starting in 2016, the teapot refiners will be allowed to export products.
"China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the United States. Since the beginning of 2015, China's hoard oil is at an unprecedented speed." The yuan &gold company researcher shou-kai wang pointed out.
Medium-term futures researcher SuiXiaoYing founder told the China securities journal reporter, starting from the second half of 2014, a drop in oil prices, China has to a large number of imported crude oil, in order to satisfy the demands of domestic consumption demand and strategic reserves. First 11 months of 2015 China's crude oil imports will break through 300 million tons, equivalent to 2014 annual imports. While China's strategic petroleum reserve includes 3 phase, a phase of the project has reserves, the second phase reserves has also draws to a close, three phase of the project is still in construction, the current and future Chinese crude oil import will continue to maintain rapid growth, China's imports of crude oil has been in progress, so to speak.
Foreign media help China calculate a bill. The economist said, based on the data of 2013, international oil prices for every $1, below can save $2.1 billion a year in China.
Barclays analyst zhang said that as the new storage facility in the camp this year, China's reserves of emergency crude oil imports are likely to double to 230000 barrels a day.
"China's crude oil import growth provided support for oil prices, which will help ease the excess supply of crude oil in the first half of 2016." EugeneLindell JBCEnergyGmbH analyst said.
However, there is the personage inside course of study thinks, for the price of crude oil, while China took advantage of low bottom oil, must be bullish factor, but the purchasing power is not in the next few years for a long time, China's purchases of crude oil is its strategic needs, and in view of China's economy is in the throes of transition, oil consumption is difficult to have obvious rise, so even if China's large purchases a certain extent, support the price of oil, also can't see it as a long-term oil prices rebound signal recovery.
"Although China is currently the world's second largest oil consumer, consumption ratio of 10% or more, but only by the growth of China's oil demand is difficult to get rid of the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil market, and a drop in oil prices is mainly due to the excess of supply side, so the effect of China's large import crude oil to oil co., LTD." SuiXiaoYing said.
International oil prices on the first day in the New Year "big wave"
In 2016 the first day of trading, the international oil prices on the reversal. International oil prices briefly soared 4%, but in the United States released innovative high crude oil inventories and low manufacturing PMI, international oil prices rose after midday in New York trading narrow and closed down. ) on Monday (January 4, the New York mercantile exchange west Texas light oil futures settled at $36.76 a barrel in February 2016, the previous trading day down $0.28; Ice, in London, brent crude oil futures settled at $37.22 a barrel in February 2016, the previous trading day down $0.06.
SuiXiaoYing pointed out that the recent volatility of crude oil was mainly affected by geopolitical factors, and Saudi Arabia announced this week cut off diplomatic relations with Iran to further escalate the situation, but due to the poor economic situation and the dollar strengthened continuously, the pressure on oil prices have not risen sharply.
The financial times reports pointed out that at the end of 2015, hedge funds and other investors to bet on a drop in oil prices of futures and futures positions scale to record more than 360 million m, almost can meet the demand of global 4. Under the condition of short positions in crude oil hit a new high, the oil market sentiment is very sensitive, if there is a short squeeze, short positions, pouring oil prices could rebound, repeat in August 2015, crude oil futures prices rose more than 10% of the scene.
SuiXiaoYing argues that, in the short term, the crude oil market more empty factors interweave, present the volatile oil prices, but the future need to pay attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East, if further fermentation, does not exclude the oil prices have risen sharply, or continue to dip.
Everbright futures institute assistant Li Zhoulei think, however, the recent international oil price fluctuations are largely affected by tensions in the Iran and Saudi Arabia, the existing pattern of supply and demand are not available at the moment to change.
Short "yoke" is still heavy
The pressure of the supply side, is still a heavy chains. In order to fight for market share, game, each big oil producers with a drive to increase production. OPEC meeting in December 2015 announced no production, and give up 30 million barrels per day production targets. According to bloomberg survey data, OPEC raises the average daily production by 18000 barrels a day this month, to 32.139 million barrels. At the same time, the sanctions against Iran for 40 years is lifted, Iran has said that within one week after lifting sanctions, Iran will increase the daily output of 500000 barrels a day.
Short positioning data also showed that still have the upper hand, crude oil futures net more quotas on the decrease. , the intercontinental exchange data provided by the analysis on Monday in the week ended December 29, brent crude oil futures holdings of 2059408 hands, more than a week before the 2227 hands; Managed funds held in brent crude futures net long for 167415, 4930 fewer hands than the previous. Short hand holding long increase 909, an increase of 5839.
Shou-kai wang said that the crude oil market supply and demand imbalance is not only difficult to change, and growing trend. First, a long period of high crude oil inventories in the United States have always been the pillar of the short of crude oil, and the recent crude oil inventory figures released by the EIA is extremely stable, at the same time, according to recent data in Cushing 892000 barrels of crude weeks reached a record high, close to the capacity limit, that inventories rising trend even did not end, so that crude oil is still in space.
Second, the oil producers are all production to stabilize its share of the market, oligopoly market share increased competition between the supply and demand imbalances increase. The oil shale in the low oil price environment is more tenacious than market expectations, while drilling platform in a downtrend, but production has not collapsed. Opec to maintain its market share increase production, even to maintain supply to crack down on oil prices. And Iran and Saudi Arabia now due to the geopolitical relations, Opec may competition between the organization's internal hots up. In addition, the non-oil exporting countries largest producer Russia also continues to increase supply, even in international oil prices hit 11-year lows in December 2015, Russian crude oil output hit a record high after the previous month. Global oil production countries are the driving force, and the demand and impress, crude oil in the future can only be successively lower.
"In the first quarter of 2016 the pattern of oil prices will remain weak, it mainly from, considering the characteristics of seasonal and as the second half of the pattern of the excess supply of detente, oil prices are expected to stabilize, but recovery is relatively limited space, on the whole, this year the price of crude oil will give priority to with shock at the bottom of the market." Li Zhoulei said.