The national development and reform commission has said it would suspend adjusting domestic refined oil prices, meaning that is temporarily not reduce the price. Development and reform commission (NDRC) was given on the grounds that such doing can give full play to the refined oil price leverage, to promote resource conservation and management of air pollution. It provoked uproar in public opinion field, some people accuse the development and reform commission (NDRC) rise in price, the price is another kind of attitude.
After the national development and reform commission to temporarily not drop oil prices further explanation, points out that the current is less than $40 a barrel of oil prices are lower than the domestic crude oil production cost, to continue with the international market by domestic oil prices will hurt the national energy security, think the country can't completely dependent on imported oil, must ensure that the 200 million tons of domestic crude oil production.
Many knowledgeable people think that $30 a barrel of oil is Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich deliberately "make", its aim is to beat the competitors, its alternative energy sources, etc., are unlikely to sustain for a long time. Because the price is lower than the production cost of many oil producers, China cut rhythm control domestic oil prices, has certain rationality strategy.
Believe that if you can give it all to speak Chinese consumers understand that there will be many people to not continue to cut prices to give understanding. In anticipation of the price is also a hair a few cents per litre, actual influence on consumers is limited, this explanation after work hard should be can do. However, the national development and reform commission for what you have done to decide that was clearly too easy, especially in the initial explanation, easily questioned on logic. Development and reform commission to respond to public opinion to estimate shortage, may work difficult estimation was high, the explanation with fear, so basic give up.
People often proclaim, development and reform commission (NDRC) drop the price carefully, consumedly square square up oil prices. This is not true, over the years, in order to improve the domestic supply capacity, our country already belongs to the high cost of unconventional oil and gas resources for development, the average domestic oil production costs have significantly higher than the $40 a barrel. The domestic crude oil production has entered into a state of loss. From energy security, it is necessary for us to keep domestic production of a certain proportion, maintain 200 million tons even strive for more. This is not only beneficial to the tight world oil supply and demand, it necessary to step-down ability of malignant rising oil prices. Is to ensure that the import of oil and gas appeared unexpectedly, to maintain a continuous supply of domestic a certain ability. Domestic capacity is necessary when we introduce the foreign oil and gas resources price bargaining chip. If we fully with the international oil prices as a benchmark, continue to cut domestic fuel prices, will further increase the domestic crude oil production losses. Quite a number of fields will have to be out of production. Once interrupt production and maintenance operations, restore the capacity will be very difficult, or must significantly increase investment cost again.
The international crude oil prices, the country no longer adjust prices of refined petroleum products, is conducive to China's energy security for a long time, also can avoid the domestic oil companies further losses significantly.
Crude oil market analysis: the daily chart analysis, oil prices by MA10 - day moving average, touch pressure often fell back quickly, on Thursday, lower secondary to test 222 support is not strong, for now, the declines last week, this week short-covering show some support and above resistance on MA10 235 - day moving average line, support the focus this week low of 222 line, the appended drawings MACD fast line turn head down, dead fork run trend, KDJ oversold zone gold fork, three line up. The whole, prices fell back quickly under the premise of the declines, short dynamics slowed, focus on low 222 line support next week, next week is expected to continue continue to shock downward direction this week.
Figure 4 hours, due to contract in month high, oil prices on ma10 in 231 a line above, other downward trend has not changed, average system closed, among line rail in 233.7 a line across the K line; MACD indicators are red column energy attenuation signs, speed line below the zero line gold fork upward; Random indicators KDJ bung downward tucked there were signs of death fork, show that oil price trend is still bearish; But clearly we can see that in the near future, after oil prices hit bottom below each recovery of acceleration is very fast, so it is not hard to see, oil prices below support price significantly. Gold line resistance is not broken, k line price shock downward continuously, there is a rebound will fall, 5 - day moving average and wear under 10 - day moving average and 20 daily average lines are form death fork, average system showed a trend of short arrangement; Cloth forest reducing parallel run, k line in the forest between middle rail operation, pay attention to the cloth in the forest above rail 234 a line pressure, below 224 a line under the forest rail support, focus on cloth whole, short is still dominant, operation still is given priority to with high short on next week.
Monday operation Suggestions: 1, hit 240 resistance to short, stop 243, target level 234-232; 2 and acquiring more than short-term test 230 support not to break the single, stop 227, target level 235-237.