Orient securities petrochemical industry study, released on February 6, the summary report is as follows:
The holistic 16 years chemical prices, corresponding stocks of relative income is also very obvious. Looking to 17 years petrochemical investment, although our judgment logic around the prices of stocks and continue to deduce the space, but the long-term stock selection logic based on structural changes of supply and demand is more worthy, concrete has the following three main lines: the key points of investment
The rise in oil prices brought groups of energy arbitrage opportunities: oil prices will continue to rise, we determine the coming years is expected to be in a few years back to $80 - $100 a barrel swings in the central. And different materials such as oil, coal, gas, often can produce the same chemical products, which will bring huge arbitrage opportunities, embodied in the oil and gas propane dehydrogenation of arbitrage, carry coal to olefin coal oil, ethylene glycol, arbitrage and oil and corn ethanol;
Is an American version 2.0: since the second half of this year the United States will be a large number of production QiTou ethylene, ethane dehydrogenation to ethene, scale is expected to more than 10 million tons. But compared to oil, ethylene, ethylene propylene and butadiene QiTou by-product to little more than 90%, this also means that the global supply of propylene and butadiene in the next two years will reduce 5 million tons and 1 million tons, output contraction of 7% and 15% respectively. And these two products in the past two years of deep recession, lead to very few new supply next two years, if again superposition capacity to contract, supply and demand will become very nervous, the price also is expected to remain strong for a long time; Environmental capacity of shrinkage: after last year's rally, the existing production capacity from the Angle of profit is the possibility of closure has been eliminated, the subsequent main output contraction is from the environmental constraint to strengthen the reform of the supply side, especially in hebei and shandong, shanxi barred backward production capacity out of haze, concrete mainly embodied in the PO, soda ash and carbon black;
As a result, we watch the propane dehydrogenation, butadiene, PO, carbon black, soda ash and coal glycol industry such as individual stocks, advice to focus on satellite petrochemical (002648, buy), JiXiang tengda (002408, buy), red polaroid (002165, not ratings), black cats shares (002068, not ratings), poetic chemical (600409, buy)
Ethane dehydrogenation to production below expectations, methanol, coal oil prices fell sharply; Environmental constraints, not exceeding the expectation"