On January 12, China petroleum group economic and technical institute (hereinafter referred to as "the institute") released the 2016 report on the oil and gas industry both at home and abroad, for the oil and gas industry development trend in the next five years to make. In charge of the institute pointed out that in 2017 the world oil market will be rebalancing, international oil prices will be a substantial rebound. As China's economic transformation and upgrading, energy intensive industries into the plateau as well as the innovation of energy supply side, the next five years, the diversification of energy consumption will continue to improve and clean degree, coal consumption will enter a decline in channel.
In the process of rebalancing
By Qian Xingkun, vice President of the institute, points out that in 2016, is a complex oil and gas industry change. The downturn in global oil and gas demand, the excess supply. China's crude oil output fell below 200 million tons, more than 65%; external dependency Natural gas consumption continued to slow, seriously lags behind the national planning of market development. Looking ahead to 2017, the oil and gas market will be reflected in the "change", black swan event not less than in 2016, the market uncertainty increases; The oil market balance will be entered a substantive stage; The new energy policy will bring new changes; Marketization reform will be comprehensive and thorough going efforts to promote China's oil and gas industry.
The report pointed out that in 2016, the world's energy industry experiencing unrest and upheaval brought by the slump in oil prices, the oil and gas industry in the process of rebalancing. Loose the world's oil supply and demand, international oil prices rebound, the market rebalancing slower than expected. In 2016, China's total energy consumption of 4.36 billion tons of standard coal (3.05 billion tons of oil equivalent), growth rate of 1.4%, the supply side wins initial success in reform, further optimize the energy structure. China's apparent consumption of 556 million tons of oil, up 2.8% from a year earlier, the growth rate fell 1.5% from a year. Out of crude oil inventory changes, real consumption growth is about 0.7%, consumption growth slowed sharply.
Figures show that China's oil foreign dependence is 64.4%, rose 3.8% on the previous year. Annual apparent consumption of 313 million tons of refined oil, fell 1% from a year, oil consumption shrink for the first time. Among them, the gasoline apparent consumption of 118.99 million tons, up 3.1% from a year earlier, growth is slowing from a 7.9%; Diesel apparent consumption negative growth for the first time, the apparent consumption of 163.3 million tons, 5.6% year-on-year drop in growth rate fell 5.7% from a year; Kerosene, apparent consumption of 30.58 million tons, an increase of 10.4%.
Market-oriented reform will be deepened
Via Jiang Xuefeng prediction, vice President of the institute, in 2017, the world oil market will be rebalancing, international oil prices will be a substantial rebound. Expected to brent annual average price of 2017-53 $58 a barrel, brent and WTI spreads have widened. In 2017, China's oil consumption low speed growth, external dependency may break 65%; Refining capacity will return to growth, overcapacity situation is more serious; The excess supply of refined oil products increased, big into a situation may occur; Oil and gas industry market reform will be comprehensive and thorough going efforts to promote, the "three to one drop one filling" supply side of the reform is still the focus of policy adjustment.
The Liu Chaoquan, vice President of the institute, said global energy development in the next five years will enter a new transitional period, the global energy consumption growth is slowing, the diversification of energy consumption and clean degree enhances unceasingly. By 2020, the global energy consumption will reach 13.7 billion tons of oil equivalent, the average annual growth of around 1.5%. Among them, the average annual growth rate of 0.2% of coal, oil 0.2%, 1.5% of natural gas, nuclear energy 1.8%, water 1.3%, other 9.6% renewable energy. In 2020, the global clean energy consumption ratio will reach 41.3%, 1.7% higher than 2016. Among them, 0.5% rise in the proportion of natural gas, nuclear energy basic remains the same, the proportion of water fell by 0.1%, other 1.3% rise in the proportion of renewable energy sources. 2020 years ago, oil prices in the range of 40-80 dollars/barrel a sawtooth wave is a big probability event; Oil prices running median interal 50 - $60 a barrel, up in 2016, but will not return to the era of high oil prices.
"As China's economic transformation and upgrading, energy intensive industries into the plateau as well as the innovation of energy supply side, China's coal consumption will enter a decline in the channel, still need many policies to guide gas demand growth. Is expected in 2020, China's total energy consumption is about 4.59 billion tons of standard coal. Among them, the primary energy proportion of coal fell to 58.2%, the proportion of natural gas rose to 8.9%, the proportion of non-fossil energy to 15%." Liu Chao full name.