So far, so far in 2016 the international oil prices have rebounded 65%, although just recovered some losses in 2015, but if the rally continues, will boost the overall inflation rate, it will face the global central Banks ultra-loose policy challenges.
Analysts believe that even if brent crude oil stays at current levels, analysts believe that its from January and a 12-year low sharp rebound momentum is likely to make a full percentage point higher inflation next year.
UBS (UBS) analyst Paul Donovan said. "The central bank policy is usually about 18 months of lag, so after 18 months of inflation should be a priority. If oil prices steadied, by the end of 2017 when the euro zone inflation may rise to 1.7% or 1.7%. No matter what standards, which are very close to the ECB's target, also make the now should seek to do more to ease policy become a problem."
The European central bank (ECB) definition of price stability is: in the medium term inflation below but close to 2%. But now the European central bank and the bank of Japan (BOJ) a walk in the forefront of the world against the threat of deflation.
At the same time, in order to achieve the 2% inflation target, the bank of Japan on the basis of large-scale asset purchases, 1 month and impose negative interest rates, the market by surprise. At the same time, the European central bank actually also have launched initiatives to encourage euro-zone Banks to lend to enterprises.
Data show that the euro zone's overall inflation rate is zero, the last is 2% in January 2013. Since the beginning of last year, there are 49 central bank to ease policy to boost inflation and growth, or both, the European central bank (ECB) is one of them.
Under the attack of the excess supply and demand is weak, brent crude oil futures fell $115 in June 2014, to become the world's "low inflation" (in some areas even deflation).
However, since this year oil has launched a strong rebound. Earlier this month, brent crude rose to 2014 for the first time since July 2014 - day moving average, currently the important technical levels just above $43 a barrel, the spot price is up to $46.
, chief European economist at HSBC, said Karen Ward "over the past year energy prices are the euro zone's overall inflation was 0.8% lower. Therefore, even to maintain the current price, 0.4% by early next year will push up inflation, equivalent to 1.2% of the impact on inflation."
Ward says, "with inflation rising, to fall into a japanese-style deflation fears will ease. But the base is still quite low, so a surge in oil prices will not lead to inflationary pressures."
In fact, over the past few years have been in doubt oil, economic model of the traditional relationship between growth and inflation. Two years ago, people's universal view is that if oil prices fell 75%, will hit consumer spending and overall economic growth, but this did not happen, the low oil price is equal to weak demand and the overall weak economy.
ING DiBa in Frankfurt - chief economist Carsten Brzeski thinks, if oil prices rose 20%, inflation should drive the highest growth of 0.4%, which means that oil prices nearly 60% since mid-january, will lead to inflation rose more than 1%.
This will no doubt was welcomed by some central Banks, such as worried about the threat of deflation of the European central bank, and has been in the face of strong economic growth and employment markets tighten federal reserve (FED) and the bank of England (indicate), etc.