On April 17, 16 oil producers in the doha negotiations frozen production of crude oil. 18 morning Beijing time, producers did not reach an agreement, all countries whether countries like Iran should be involved in frozen production has serious differences, is an important reason of the consensus. It is reported that Iranian officials did not attend the doha meeting.
18, petrochina relevant personage says: ' 'we can foresee the results 17. 'he said,' said Saudi Arabia, 17 night if other oil-producing countries, including Iran, not reached an agreement to maintain oil production, so Saudi Arabia will not limit its oil production, so the Iranian officials did not attend the talks, means that the doha meeting there can be no results. '
He suggests that international oil prices could rise sharply after 2018, so China should continue to increase the import of crude oil. 'must support after Iran's output to 4 million barrels of crude oil freezing action, and then the shale oil production also decline substantially, so prices could rise sharply after 2018, leaving China's strategic reserves will not long. 'he said.
The doha round of frozen produce agreement 'abortion'
Before the doha meeting, several oil producers, including Kuwait's oil minister, officials said the nations of the world will soon jelly produced an agreement. Doha frozen to produce draft agreement, they say, has won the acceptance of Saudi Arabia and Russia, monthly production of crude oil would freeze to no more than 1 month's average level, production freeze will last until October 1 this year. One of the main producers of Oman also said, frozen production agreement will help to achieve balance between supply and demand market in years.
Affected by the news, April 15, the international oil prices have soared from $36 a barrel to $45 a barrel.
But, on April 16th, Iran's oil minister BijanNamdarZanganeh, said Iran has not sent representatives to participate in the doha meeting, which makes the international oil prices began to fall.
According to senior petrochina, Iran is not willing to frozen, because Iran to the international society at the beginning of 2016 to remove oil sanctions, it hopes to have more production. He said: "Saudi Arabia and Iran are crude oil storage power, Saudi current production is 10.3 million barrels a day, and Iran only 2.8 million barrels a day. Iran hopes its output to 4 million barrels a day, then frozen. '
'frankly, production from won't happen, Saudi Arabia and Iran's recent conflict means any party cuts in market share would be political suicide. We have never heard any suggests Iran or Saudi Arabia is considering any news production, maybe today reflects the fact that a decline in oil prices. 'IG JoshMahony market analysts said in a report on the market.
'the doha meeting to have the result, actually for the current oil prices, there was no difference. 'the petrochina relevant personage says:' in 2016, oil prices are still swings between 30 ~ 50 dollars/barrel. '
On the one hand, he thought, Iran will not frozen before 4 million barrels a day yield production of crude oil, on the other hand the shale oil production will not fall quickly, so the future international crude oil market will continue to shock. 'oil prices fall much, they are said to be discussed; But after the rise in oil prices, they are not frozen. 'he said.
China should continue to increase the import of crude oil
However, for China, low oil prices is a good thing.
Statistical data show that by the general administration of customs, in March 2016, China imported 32.61 million tons of crude oil; China imported 91.1 million tons of crude oil, 1-3 month compared with the same period last year growth of 13.4%; In 2015, China's oil consumption of 543 million tons, 60% broken first external dependency, is currently the world's largest oil imports and consuming countries.
The ministry of land and resources, according to data in China in 2009 to become second only to Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United States after the fourth largest oil producer. In recent years, the domestic oil production has remained steady in 190 million ~ 200 million tons, but the half of the production is still difficult to meet domestic demand.
The oil in the relevant personage says, with China's national economy level enhances unceasingly, more and more people buy their cars. More than millions of cars in China's 35 cities, Beijing, chengdu, shenzhen and other 10 cities more than 2 million cars.
With rising crude oil imports, China's strategic crude oil reserve is rapidly increasing. In 2015 China's use of the oil price, aggressively expand oil reserves. Full-year 2015 crude oil imports of 335.5 million tons, up 8.8% from a year earlier. 'as long as oil prices remain at a relatively low, the Chinese government will strive to enrich the inventory. 'he said.
A transnational investment banking, analysts said at present China has six new strategic oil reserves are under construction, including some affiliated with strategic reserve business assets under the plan, the total storage capacity at 146 million barrels a day, most of these are expected to be able to enrich in next year. As the new repository, a build-up will speed up again. Built in 2020 in the China's goal is about 500 million m barrels of strategic petroleum reserve, and at present China's strategic oil reserves of 191 million barrels, there is still a large gap in the middle.
He said, from the current capacity of data, also are expected to absorb 12 million tonnes (88 million barrels) of crude oil, equivalent to 66% of China's strategic petroleum reserve the remaining storage capacity. To more than 90 million barrels of oil will make China's total import strategic petroleum reserve to about 300 million barrels of oil.
But lower oil prices to China's time is not much. Forecast, according to a report in May this year the shale oil production will drop by 114000 barrels to 4.84 million barrels, Bakken, EagleFord and PermianBasin shale oil producing output will appear different degrees of decline. It would also be the shale oil production seventh consecutive month of decline.
The oil in the high forecast, as Iran's production promotion and shale oil production in the United States, 2018 years later may start a new round of rising oil prices, China's strategic crude oil reserve should seize the golden opportunity to stage a large number of imports.