January 24, the Chinese President xi jinping at the end of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and returned to Beijing after Iran's state visit of The Three Kingdoms. Xi jinping, the selection of the New Year's first visit to the three countries in the Middle East, is quite significant.
As China's "neighbourhood" strategic key nodes, xi jinping, the visit of the three countries in the Middle East, have joined the newly formed the investment bank. Chairman's visit, xi jinping will strengthen cooperation as the main target, and Saudi Arabia, Iran announced the establishment of comprehensive strategic partnership, and Egypt issued on strengthening the comprehensive strategic partnership between implementation guidelines for five years.
In fact, in the context of international oil prices continued to fall, as the main channels of oil imports in China, the energy problem is more notable in the Middle East. In the international oil price hit a low of 2015, China's crude imports rising. According to the general administration of customs on January 13, by the preliminary statistics, in 2015 in China's crude imports increased 8.8% year-on-year, a record 334 million tons (about 6.7 million barrels per day).
In the "new normal", under the background of economic slowdown, demand of domestic oil and no significant growth, a large number of imported oil is mainly used to fill the void once before the state strategic oil reserve. China energy policy institute director, famous energy expert boqiang Lin said in an interview with time weekly reporters: "this time the oil price, is the golden age of our country to speed up the strategic oil reserve. If this year's oil continues to maintain in low price, China will be completed in the two years 90 days of the international energy agency to set security line."
Low oil prices "advantages and disadvantages coexist"
On January 13, 2016, the New York market price of crude oil briefly fell below $30 a barrel on the plate for the first time in 12 years. Compare the price of crude oil at $147 a barrel in 2008, is should.
Institute, vice President of the China's energy strategy analysis to the time weekly press j. : "volatility of oil prices was mainly affected by supply and demand, but this round of the slump is obviously different with before. On the supply side, the United States launched the shale gas revolution severely impact the oil industry, at the same time, shale gas price is much lower than that of imagination, will not easily be OPEC out. On the contrary, OPEC oil input accounted for from 50% down to 30%, now the proportion has been unable to support its regulating the market, to determine the ability of the market. In addition, from the demand side, the global economic slowdown, even if China has entered a" new normal "economy, slowing the speed of economic development, the demand for oil also reduced. In such a context, even if OPEC decided to also cannot control the price of oil production, it will lose their market share."
Collapse in oil prices, China's crude oil is still as high as 60%, external dependency xi jinping is just a trip to the Middle East China petroleum (601857, shares), the main import source: China's oil imports in 2015, only Saudi Arabia and Iran has accounted for a quarter of the two countries.
In April, 2015, 7.4 million barrels per day in our country imports at a faster rate than the United States, the world's largest crude oil importer. J think that, as at present, the world's largest oil importer, international oil prices stay low for long, for China's development is "the advantages and disadvantages coexist".
Specific to the time weekly press j., explained: "although China's oil imports is very big, but our own is also a producer, and the production cost is high in some places. Oil prices plunged, had a certain impact on the oil production industry, but at the same time, low oil prices for some oil as raw material production industry, and greatly reduces the cost. In short, lower oil prices created the opportunity for our country to speed up the strategic oil reserve." Boqiang Lin is more pronounced views that lower oil prices for China, "not do more harm than good" : "on our country's macro economy, the decline in oil prices is good news, our country to save energy procurement cost greatly. As long as it doesn't appear of excessive dependence on oil and overuse, negative impact is small. At the same time, China's strategic oil reserves also entered the golden age, should have a good grasp."
Oil reserve base in catching up
Since the end of 2015, after twice a moratorium on the adjustment of prices of refined petroleum products, the national development and reform commission on January 13, 2016, issued a notice: perfect the refined oil pricing mechanism, to further promote the market price. In the new refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the national development and reform commission for the prices of refined petroleum products set the "ceiling price" and "floor price" two restrictions, to control the domestic refined oil price fluctuation range between 40-130 dollars/barrel.
Boqiang Lin to time weekly reporter said, refined oil price mechanism, mainly that China doesn't want to consume resources at low cost: "when the international oil prices below $40 a barrel, the middle price difference will be used for energy conservation and emissions reduction, handle the solution of the environmental problems, such as automobile exhaust." In addition, j think: "' floor price setting is for protection of domestic oil companies. At the same time, the low consumption of crude oil prices could lead to increased, so as to create constant pressure to the environment, it is not suitable for China's energy structure adjustment. 'the ceiling price setting you need to have enough strategic oil reserve in our country, to have the ability to guarantee the price within a reasonable range."
As early as 2003, China began preparations for the oil reserve base, but the current data, hand over the report card is not optimistic.
The national bureau of statistics web site after, according to data released by the middle of 2015, China built a total of zhoushan, dalian and other eight national oil reserve bases, a total reserve capacity of 28.6 million cubic meters. The international energy agency set a country's oil reserves in the security line is 90 days, according to the standard and China's oil consumption in 2014, to achieve security line, China's oil reserves should be 127 million tons, and now only about 127 million tons of storage capacity, compared to China are far away from the "line".
By contrast, in the western countries is rich in oil reserves. According to the Chinese academy of engineering Cao Xiang hong statistics, Japan's strategic oil reserve and commercial reserve inventory add up to 180 days or so, the United States for 150 days, more than 180 days in France. To this, to the time weekly press j., said that although China's strategic oil reserve has not yet reached "line", but it's not so bad like now see. "I have seen some new data, some have reached 30-40 days, some 50 days, in general, should be no more than 50 days." Boqiang Lin also said: "at present the latest petroleum reserve Numbers have not come out, the oil import sharply last year, much of it is used in the strategic reserve, so now Chinese oil reserves must be higher than the actual see digital. If oil prices remain low next two years, 90 days safety standard is no problem."
Released by the national development and reform commission (NDRC) national oil reserve base construction plan, according to plans to use three to five years to complete the third phase of a total of 70 million cubic meters of strategic reserves. Among them, the first phase of the planning of zhoushan, zhenhai, huangdao and dalian four base was established in 2008, and finished in the first half of 2009 oil; In the second phase of planning the dushanzi and lanzhou stockpile has was completed and put into production in the first quarter of 2012, the oil was slow. Tianjin, huangdao phase ii respectively in November 2013 and June 2014 putting-in-service proactively, huizhou reserve main body device also has been completed, but the jinzhou, zhoushan, zhanjiang reserve is relatively slow.
Boqiang Lin analysis to the time weekly reporters: "the petroleum reserve enough is enough, a main reason is the storage facility, but our country construction facilities ability is very strong, once followed, this oil reserves will improve." To time weekly reporter said, j., in addition to the storage space is insufficient, the higher oil prices also hinder our country one of the reasons for strategic oil reserve. "2014 years ago, oil prices have been higher, at high price to buy is clearly inappropriate. Compared to developed countries want to store oil, we can't afford such a high price."
The folk commercial storage power
During the low oil prices, coupled with the speeding up of the oil reserve base construction, the state strategic oil reserve in the golden period, also let the folk commercial storage industry is a good time.
In countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea's oil reserves, non-governmental organizations, commercial oil company, a large proportion. Among them, the private reserve accounts for two-thirds of its total oil reserves, Japan accounted for 46.4%, commercial oil reserves in the future of China huge space for development. Related studies have shown that by the end of 2013, more than 80000 private oil enterprises in our country, the total storage capacity of 230 million tons, but policy causes the lack of oil source, the current basic idle, the terminal can use only hundreds of thousands of tons of capacity. , j explained to time weekly reporter: "although the folk storage size is large, but also more fragmented, it is difficult to regulate. The use of oil depot, both from the perspective of security and strategic perspective is very important, need certain standards. In addition, for private enterprises of oil imports just open, is still not fully open, so that led to some storage space empty."
In 2014, the state council general office on the printing of the energy development strategic action plan (2014-2020) also mentioned that encourage private capital to participate in reserve construction, building enterprise obligations reserves, encourage the development of commercial reserves.
Under the current market of low oil prices, substitute social repository for the practice of strategic stockpile has already begun. So far, the national library of first and second phase of the strategic storage of crude oil (does not contain social repository storage) of 18 million - 19 million tons, and the national bureau of statistics released by the strategic stockpile and part of the community library reserve a total of 26.1 million tons of crude oil. In computing, social reservoir generation reserves accounted for 27% of total reserves - 31%. Crude oil business reserve figures released by the xinhua news agency, as of June 2015, the Chinese business inventories of crude oil 32.83 million tons, with national strategic reserves of 26.1 million tons of inventory, China's crude oil inventory 58.93 million tons - although distance goal of 90 days still has certain gap, but the folk commercial reserves have already begun to power.
Boqiang Lin to time weekly reporter said: "the folk commercial reserve is different from national strategic reserves. Commercial reserves mainly for profit purpose, and the strategic reserve is for reasons of energy security. Private oil reserves increase for the country as a whole is good, but at the same time pay attention to, can't rely too much on private oil reserves."