Falling on the international oil market confidence wounded, after losing $30 a barrel, most agencies remain pessimistic about movements of oil prices in the near future, overseas funds continuous slash long position. Some investors are expected to look "Chinese version" crude oil futures, although the time to market is still uncertain.
On Wednesday, the overnight U.S. crude oil futures fell below $27 for the first time since 2003 a barrel, aggravated a drop in global financial markets. Investors worried that oil prices continue to fall is likely to mean that the global economy. In February the New York mercantile exchange (nymex) crude oil futures contract expires, the contract fell $1.91, to settle at $26.55 a barrel. 3 months is down nearly 4%, at hk $28.35 a barrel. Since the New Year, oil prices had fallen more than 25%.
Last week the United States energy information administration (EIA), short-term energy outlook report released the fundamentals before showed that in the second half of 2017 the oil market oversupply situation will not be mitigated.
Overseas institutions increasingly pessimistic views about oil prices. Early in the fourth quarter, Goldman sachs has repeatedly, under the background of deterioration, excess supply crude oil supply and demand, international oil prices fell to $20 a barrel of risks. Morgan Stanley has also reiterated that considering the dollar against other currencies may further strong, crude oil prices are likely to fall to $20 a barrel. Standard chartered view more pessimistic, commodities analyst at the company believes that since there is no important factor to promote the crude oil market is supply equilibrium, received the dollar and the stock market to a great extent oil prices, crude oil prices could fall to $10 a barrel.
Liu Xiaozheng Noah wealth of research and development center, said the future in the long run, the crude oil market supply and demand unbalanced pattern has not changed. Affected by the fed to raise interest rates, the global economy into a "L" recovery, namely for a long time, the economy will not have more apparent rebound sharply, low growth will likely become the norm. Although China in the period of low oil prices or to increase crude oil reserves, as oil prices rebound "lifeline", but at this stage is not evident.
For growth forecast for global oil, 2016, the international energy agency (IEA), monthly report shows about 1.02 million barrels of expectations, at the same time to the 2016 global oil demand is expected to 95.7 million barrels a day.
Overseas institutional investors were forced to slash oil bulls holdings, speculative short increased significantly. The commodity futures trading commission (CFTC), according to data from January 12 week, U.S. crude oil futures market, asset management agencies net long position fell by 13100 to 36400 hand, the data set was the lowest since 2009. West Germany intermediate speculative short positions in the January 12 week increased by 15%, to 2006 the highest ever recorded. Speculative short positions, makes further pressure on crude oil rebound.
"International oil price so low, hope to launch as soon as possible, China's crude oil futures for domestic enterprises and institutions to provide risk management tools." Some agencies began to look forward to "the Chinese version of" crude oil futures listed.
At the end of 2014, the securities and futures commission approved the Shanghai futures exchange in its international energy trading center trading in oil futures. The securities and futures commission chairman xiao in 2016 national work conference on securities and futures regulation, on the base of sufficient evaluation, fight risk, increase of crude oil futures varieties such as strategic public work. However, according to the securities times reporter from the interview, according to the results of crude oil futures listed time still not sure, some in the industry speculation until at least after the "two sessions" will have the exact statement.