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2016, the biggest risk of oil prices in which

2016, the biggest risk of oil prices in which

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2020-03-31 14:57
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2016, the biggest risk of oil prices in which

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2020-03-31 14:57
  • Views:
Information
Beijing 9, Reuters said, the biggest financial risk may have been faced in 2016 this year, may have been staged this year.
In the UK by the Christmas fairy tale, the bad guys, the audience will be screaming to remind the hero, "he's behind you!"
Investment strategist in the search for risk factors in the search for almost heard this reminder, the price of oil fell by the bad man from behind the scenes.
But the market is now very familiar with this risk, it is difficult to further fall in the oil price as a new risk.
Since the mid 2014, the financial markets have been affected by the fall in energy prices, the impact of the range is also very large. At least one person feels nervous about the possibility of such a violent wave.
Global oil market value has shrunk more than 1 trillion u..
Since 2010, companies in the field of energy and minerals have issued a total of nearly $2 trillion of bonds, many of which are small shale oil companies issued high-yield bonds, or so-called junk bonds". At present, these bonds are facing a wave of credit downgrades and increase the risk of default.
Deflation fears in oil prices forced the European Central Bank to start buying a bond earlier this year, now about 2 trillion euros of European government bond yields below zero.
The impact on inflation expectations that the price of oil has again continued to fall, the central bank's impact is equally enormous, whether it is to tighten policy of the Federal Reserve (FED), or will be the implementation of loose measures of central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB).
More than this, from Russia to Brazil and then to Southeast Asia, the impact of commodity exports are very conspicuous. In these countries, currency devaluation, and in 2015 will become the emerging market since 1988 of the first year of net outflows of private capital.
Taking into account the magnitude of the decline in oil prices, it is not hard to see why the market trend script is repeatedly rewritten.
Since June 2014, Brent crude oil futures have fallen from $110 a barrel in 65%, currently trading at around $40. Most decline occurred in the second half of last year, but the attack in excess supply intensifies and Chinese emerging economies demand slowed sharply, all hope that the oil prices rebound this year have been dashed.
Oil prices will remain at the current low level and unable to return to at least $60 a barrel, many of the companies and the economy has been exposed to pose a major challenge, especially next week may usher in the United States to raise interest rates, the larger environment is more difficult.
The major banks in the list of future risk factors a year on the list, from the Middle East conflict, geopolitics, central bank policy "mistakes", to market liquidity shocks, and even the British exit, but oil prices once again cut a superb collection of beautiful things, will be included in one of the investment is less and less.
But after the OPEC meeting last week, oil prices once again cast a shadow. The OPEC meeting, fighting in the press, and ultimately failed to reach a consensus on the production, even production ceiling didn't mention.
Brant oil prices this week has hit a new low of $40, while U.S. crude oil fell below $37. Even the oil price year moving average in just 18 months cut, currently less than $55, and continues to decline.
New oil order
The long-term bearish prices on 2016 Goldman Sachs believes that any rebound in oil prices, or even stabilize the ideas are far from reality, and that the United States may from the current level of oil prices fell nearly 50%, fell to 20 U.S. dollars.
"Warm winter, slower growth in emerging markets, and the West may cancel the sanctions against Iran could lead to a further increase in oil inventories," said this week in a report to clients said, "these factors mean that short-term risk of oil price forecasts still tend to lower. If the price declines beyond logistics and storage capacity, so the price could break up to $20 a barrel fell to a low level of production costs."
If it turns out to be true, it will take another one in the market that has already been in the market.
And market pressure will be amplified through a variety of ways, one of which is that the central bank reserves and energy exports to the central bank reserves and oil revenues decline, resulting in the global market oppression. With the bulk of the super cycle and the bond market bull market also reversed, the reduction of these energy savings funds, coupled with the Fed's interest rate hike, it is likely to constitute the upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
Sovereign wealth funds, which are derived from the sale of oil, have gradually reduced their investments in global equities, bonds and real estate, and many reports have pointed out that some state-owned institutions have withdrawn from the private Asset Management Co of $1 billion.
The light is the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia's holdings of foreign assets, in order to more than $120 billion per year in the shrinking.
"If the global economy continues to expand as we expected, the investment demand will increase and the consequences of the oil will be exposed," Goldman said to the customer.
The price of oil is in the low - grade time, with the increase of the real interest rate, which may not be beneficial to the company's credit and emerging markets.
The price of oil is in the low - grade time, with the increase of the real interest rate, which may not be beneficial to the company's credit and emerging markets.
Next year, the increase in bond defaults in oil and minerals, as well as the "extremely unfavorable conditions for the enterprise", "Moodie said," the reason is that in 2015 the situation is not a hedge operation, fixed price contracts, and cash balances provided by the short term support.
But if the price of oil has not been picked up, and even continued to fall, it is possible to change in the next year.
Moodie managing director general manager Gates Daniel said last week, the flow of capital reduction, coupled with limited financing from the capital market, making more companies more close to default."
For those who intend to return to the emerging stock and bond markets have been hit itching of the people, the relevant information is quite clear:
"Investors should continue to remain vigilant in 2016," said Morgan Stanley, this week
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