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Four factors that inhibit the rebound in oil prices IMF worries about Saudi Arabia's financial position

Four factors that inhibit the rebound in oil prices IMF worries about Saudi Arabia's financial position

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
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  • Time of issue:2020-03-31 14:57
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Four factors that inhibit the rebound in oil prices IMF worries about Saudi Arabia's financial position

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2020-03-31 14:57
  • Views:
Information
On Thursday (October 22nd) the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) December delivery of crude oil futures prices rose 18 cents to close at $45.38 a barrel, an increase of 0.4%. At the same time, the London ICE European futures exchange in December delivery of Beihai Brent crude oil futures prices also rose 23 cents to close at 48.08 U.S. dollars a barrel, or 0.5%.
Investors in the oil price has recently dropped to near three week lows under the situation of buying. Smith Matthew, a commodity analyst at ClipperData, said that after the recent decline, investors have returned to the market, but the rise in crude oil has been stalled because of a weaker euro, and the euro has weakened because of the possibility of further stimulus measures by the European Central Bank. U.S. government reports on a trading day just show a substantial increase in crude oil inventories last week, and the oil price on Thursday to pick up, which indicates that investors have been used to a lot of bad news on the crude oil market. At the same time, OPEC member countries and non OPEC oil producing countries on Wednesday a meeting did not reach an agreement to cut production, but there are reports that Venezuela proposed at the meeting, OPEC should return to the previous policy to provide support for oil prices.
Following the recent decline, investors' interest in buying oil has returned to the market, but "this rise is due to a weaker euro, and the euro has weakened because of the potential for further stimulus measures by the European Central Bank," said Smith, a commodity analyst at ClipperData Matthew. European central bank governor Mario Delagi (Draghi Mario) on Thursday suggested that the bank may launch more stimulus measures by the end of the year, so as to promote the euro exchange rate fell, which formed a support for the dollar, and in general, the dollar exchange rate will cause the price of gold and other dollar denominated commodity futures prices fell, the cost will be high for investors holding other currencies.
Chicago's chief economist and managing director of Blu Putnam recently wrote an article said that in view of the tug of war between the short term and long term strength produced unusual uncertainty, so the energy market has been in turmoil. 2016 will see the outside world, although the price of crude oil and natural gas in the larger trading range up and down, and the formation of larger fluctuations, but the two will continue to maintain a low price trend. And in the long run is in 2017 to 2020, our basic assumption, on the one hand, think of crude oil and natural gas prices will go their separate ways. On the other hand is in a great extent to more and more dependent on the WTI the global crude oil benchmark. Here we focus on the dynamics of the energy market to promote the eight key factors of change, of which four for the short-term factors, four for long-term factors.
Short term four factors are: the United States production continued to grow, the Middle East production increased, the global growth slowdown, the impact of El Nino on the United States from 2015 to 2016 winter. The long-term four factors are: the United States LNG exports, Beihai crude oil production reduction, natural gas pricing and Eurasian crude oil decoupling, the United States may cancel the oil export ban.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a new report on the economic outlook for the Middle East this week. The situation is not good in Saudi Arabia. Although the level of the country's reserves up to $700 billion, but severe financial prospects may make the "tyrant" countries in 5 years to deplete the money. The slump has greatly affected the financial situation of the oil exporting countries. Brent crude oil may fall to $53 / barrel in the year, the first half of last year's offer to $110, the oil exporting country's financial situation from large surpluses sharply to huge deficit, only in this year, the Middle East Africa and Central Asia's export income sharp drop $360000000000 and $45000000000.
If you don't make a fiscal adjustment, the country will fall into a serious financial deficit, and the public debt ratio will rise sharply. Merrill Lynch recently updated the level of oil prices, Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves to maintain the situation. An important conclusion is that if Saudi Arabia has spent 700000000000 dollars in foreign exchange reserves, it means that such a huge amount of US dollar assets is total, which also means the reversal of the oil dollar cycle.
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