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In the first half: supply and demand are expected to lower oil prices low volatility

In the first half: supply and demand are expected to lower oil prices low volatility

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
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  • Time of issue:2020-03-31 14:57
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In the first half: supply and demand are expected to lower oil prices low volatility

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2020-03-31 14:57
  • Views:
Information
In the first half of this year, international oil prices generally low, but the volatility is significantly improved. In addition, oil demand, supply, inventory and other characteristics of different. Is expected in the second half of the global economic recovery momentum is expected to gradually increase, the oil market oversupply or improve. Expected the second half of the overall international oil prices remain low, the average price or slightly higher than the first half.
The first half of the international oil prices low
2015 year international oil prices overall running low, the trend presents first after suppression Yang's wide range of shocks trend. In the second quarter average oil price level is higher than a quarter. Combined with the actual measured data, the average price in the first half of the Brent is 59.35 U. s.dollars / barrel, than last year dropped significantly over the same period of 49.47 dollars / barrel, compared to the same period cut 45.5%, for 6 years to the lowest level over the same period; in the first half of this year, the United States xidekesasi light (WTI) crude oil price is $53.34 / barrel, than last year dropped significantly over the same period $47.5 / barrel, compared to the same period cut 47.1%, is 6 years to the same time lowest level.
From 15% to 2013, the international oil prices remain volatile, the implied volatility of most of the time to maintain at 30% ~ 2011. Since the second half of 2014, the international oil prices plummeted, a lot of money, especially oil ETF into the oil market, oil price volatility increased significantly, the fluctuation range increased to 60% ~ 30%, the highest level for 3 years.
The dollar is still an important factor in the impact of oil prices, but with the dollar into a strong cycle, the dollar and oil prices have weakened. Since the second half of last year, with the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, the dollar sharply higher, including oil and other commodities, the price of large pressure. The calculation, from June 30, 2015 to July 1, 2014, the U.S. dollar index and Brent oil prices as high as 90%. But with the dollar into a strong cycle, since the two quarter of this year, the dollar index has been between 98 ~ 93 range of shocks, the dollar and Brent oil prices weakened to around 70%.
Demand for substantial growth, supply is still more than expected
2014 global oil demand downturn, the annual demand rose only 700000 barrels / day, the lowest level since the financial crisis. Since the beginning of this year, the low fuel prices and the global economic recovery of oil demand constitute a strong support, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other major institutions constantly raised the global incremental oil demand is expected from the original 90 million barrels / day up to the current 1.4 million barrels / day.
From the point of view of the major economies, in the first half of this year, the US oil demand an increased significantly 72 million barrels / day, to 1948 million barrels / day, the highest level since 2008; oil demand in Europe also by years of negative growth turned positive growth 30 million barrels / day. In addition, China, India, South Korea and other multinational stone oil demand is also the highest have statistical data since the highest level. Oil mainly from the point of view, the global demand for gasoline on price sensitivity higher, according to consultants JBC statistics, before this year 4 months global light distillate oil (gasoline and naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) needs an substantial growth 96 million barrels / day, accounting for nearly 70% of all incremental demand.
In addition, the global supply is still in excess, the supply of oil and oil in low oil prices is expected to exceed. In the first half of the global oil market is still in excess supply, the major oil producing countries to maintain a higher supply of crude oil. In the first five months of this year, OPEC continues to strive to maintain market share, crude oil production averaged 30.56 million barrels / day, representing a substantial increase of 78 million barrels / day, part of the production in nearly 31 million barrels / day, to the highest level in more than two years; since March Saudi crude oil production also maintain in 10 million barrels / day or more higher level. Non OPEC, the first five month crude oil production is 4798 million barrels / day, representing a substantial increase 188 million barrels / day; the American shale oil producers take improving technology, improving the efficiency of a variety of ways to deal with low oil prices, crude oil production in the first half is still as high as 9.4 million barrels / day, an increase of 104 million barrels / day, an increase of more than expected, accounting for non OPEC supply increment of about 55%.
In addition, the global oil inventories, especially crude oil inventories rose sharply. In the first half of the world's supply of surplus and major countries in the use of low oil prices to boost the global oil inventories to promote a sharp rise, and a structural change. Combined with the main national data estimates, 1 ~ 5 menstrual synthetic tissue commercial oil inventories rose sharply 1.2 billion barrels, equivalent daily rose 80 million barrels; the crude oil inventories rose 1.12 billion barrels, mainly concentrated in the United States, oil inventories rose slightly 800 million barrels. In addition to commercial oil inventories on the shelf, traders have been carried out at a time of operation, at the beginning of the scale up to 50000000 barrels of floating warehouse, the recent gradual reduction to 20000000 barrels a day. In addition, major countries also use low oil prices, the timing of strategic reserve, above half a year India purchasing the 800 million barrels of crude oil as a reserve building, the United States half also adds to the 270 million barrels of strategic reserves.
Oil prices in the second half or slightly higher
From the point of view of supply and demand, the oil market in the second half of the oil market will be improved, but the overall supply side is still loose.
For the second half of the traditional oil demand season, the main economic oil demand is generally good. Third quarter for Europe and the United States the traditional driving season. In the fourth quarter for Northern Hemisphere heating oil season, will support global oil demand remains generally good, especially in the current price level is low, on driving season, gasoline demand constitute a strong support.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) is expected this year second half of the global oil demand will more than half improve 135 million barrels / day about, which the OECD oil demand improve 50 million barrels / day, non OECD oil demand increased 85 million barrels / day. In addition to the actual demand, some countries of strategic inventory will also bring certain oil demand, October India two strategic oil reserve terminal is expected to put into operation, the total capacity of 29.3 million barrels, will also drive a certain number of replenishment needs.
From the supply side, the world oil supply in the second half of the year is still ample supply, demand or improve. Second half of the main oil producing countries is still expected to continue to maintain a higher crude oil supply, combined with the IEA and OPEC data forecast, in the second half of the global oil supplies will be compared to the first half of the year increased 80 million to 100 million barrels / day, incremental supply or below incremental demand, the global oil market oversupply situation has improved. OPEC crude oil production is likely to continue to remain high, especially Iraqi production is expected to continue to improve; in addition, negotiations on Iran's nuclear agreement is reached, in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter of Iranian crude output and export volume is expected to grow, will also increase the market supply; Libya plans to improve the export amount of the year and a half, but now it seems there is still large uncertainties.
Non OPEC's main oil producing country of the United States, Russia, Canada, Brazil and other crude oil production is expected to continue to grow, especially notable is, with the recent international oil prices stabilized, the number of oil drilling rig in the United States began to increase, which means in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter increase in crude oil production in the United States or a higher than expected, will enable the international oil pressure.
Overall, the second half of the global economic recovery momentum is expected to gradually increase, the oil market oversupply or improved, but the oil refining margin outlook will be under pressure. Expected the second half of the overall international oil prices remain low, the average price or slightly higher than the first half.
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