In the first quarter of this year, due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic market, China's oil product export performance remains bright.China exported 3.76 million tons of gasoline in the first three months of this year, up 5.4 percent year-on-year, according to customs data.Diesel exports totaled 6.06 million tons, up 28.9 percent year-on-year.Aviation coal exports were 4.16 million tons, up 26.3 percent year-on-year.
With the continuous expansion of domestic refining capacity, the supply of refined oil is increasing.According to the statistics bureau, the output of gasoline in the january-march period was 35.864 million tons, up 4.6 percent year-on-year.Diesel output was 41.339 million tons, down 5.8 percent year-on-year.The output of kerosene reached 12.186 million tons, up 6.2 percent year-on-year.Diesel production, though contracting, remains at a high level.
Due to the increasingly serious problem of excess production capacity of refined oil in China, the expansion of export has become an inevitable choice.In the first quarter of this year and last year, China's refined oil products presented a net export status, with the export volume being 10 times and 11 times of the import volume respectively."In the first quarter of this year, the export volume of diesel and kerosene was higher than that of gasoline, which is in line with the principle of 'coal first, fuel second and less steam' proposed by the ministry of commerce at the beginning of the year."Longzhong information analyst li chunyan said.
In the first quarter, China's oil products are mainly exported to southeast Asian countries.Among them, the gasoline exported to Singapore accounts for 72% of the total export volume, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia, accounting for 11% and 6% of the total export volume respectively.The top five markets for diesel exports from the mainland are Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, the Philippines and Bangladesh, accounting for 72%, 24%, 16%, 13%, 13% and 8% of total exports respectively.Kerosene is mainly exported to Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam and the United Kingdom, accounting for 36%, 10%, 9%, 8% and 6%, respectively.
There are many reasons for the increase in China's refined oil export volume this year."On the one hand, the oversupply and oversupply pressure of domestic refined oil products has intensified;On the other hand, the ministry of commerce has continued to raise export quotas for general trade in refined petroleum products.Zhongyu Xu Lei information analyst, with dalian hengli and zhejiang petrochemical production actively, sharp growth, refined petroleum products supply and demand side the restriction of the domestic economic transition and structural adjustment, the industrial demand fall, GDP growth to 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, the real estate industry cool climate index, industrial and mining and construction industry development has been frustrated.At the same time, the accelerated upgrading of oil quality and the improvement of fuel efficiency of heavy trucks under strict environmental standards have also weakened diesel demand to some extent.In terms of gasoline, the production and sales volume of domestic passenger cars continued to decline year on year, and consumption willingness declined in the context of high oil prices, which pulled down demand.
Regarding the import and export trend of refined oil products in the second quarter, xu lei believes that the export of refined oil products will continue to maintain a stable growth trend. Recently, the second batch of export quotas of refined oil products this year was delegated to lower levels, with a total export quota of 28.39 million tons, which shows the state's intention to continue to increase the export of refined oil products to alleviate the contradiction between domestic supply and demand of refined oil.Under the support of export quota, the export volume of refined oil will continue to grow, and the main business units will still participate in international competition as important exporters in the future.
Wang yenting, a senior product analyst at jinlianchuang, predicted that in the short term, the oversupply pressure of domestic resources will not ease, and the export volume of refined oil products will continue to increase in the second quarter.
China imported 1.2513 million tons of refined oil products in the first quarter, up 13.33 percent from the same period last year, according to customs statistics.Imports of gasoline and kerosene increased by 86.92 percent and 96.82 percent, respectively, compared with the same period last year.The profit margin of gasoline import is large, reaching 114 yuan/ton on average.Kerosene bonded imports increased substantially.In the same period, diesel imports declined mainly because the import profit in the first quarter was often upside-down, averaging -27 yuan per ton.In the first quarter of this year, the major importer of refined oil products in China was the republic of Korea. Gasoline, diesel and kerosene imported from the republic of Korea accounted for 100%, 68% and 81% of the total import of similar products, respectively.
Zhongyu information data monitoring shows that China's oil product imports continued to decline from 2013 to 2016. Compared with 2013, China's oil product imports decreased by more than 29.68% in 2016. From 2017 to 2018, with the continuous rebound of domestic gasoline and diesel prices, China's oil product imports increased again.
From the perspective of operation price, from 2017 to 2018, the import amount of refined oil in China increased, but the average import price first rose and then fell. In the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the average import price remained above $600 / ton.In 2019, the average price of refined oil imports began to decline. In march, China imported $16,40.7 million of refined oil, up 6.3 percent year-on-year.From January to march, China imported 3177.8 million us dollars of refined oil products, up 7.2% year-on-year.