Since this year, frequent fluctuations of international oil prices, domestic fuel prices have also experienced a "three up and three down", including a recent oil price adjustment in April 12, 24, the biggest gain petrol and diesel prices for years. According to xinhua (daqing) international oil information center, a report published by May 3, the refined oil price index is 666.09, or 0.75%, the refined oil prices continued to fall.
Experts say that volatility in international oil prices is unlikely to rise significantly. Under the background of geopolitical risk may exacerbate, experts advise seize opportunities to accelerate China's strategic oil reserves work, timely and quicken the steps of crude oil futures market, improve the international crude oil price.
Domestic oil prices, "three to three," have little impact on prices
At 24 April, the price of domestic steam diesel increased by 200 yuan and 190 yuan per ton respectively. This is the third increase in the price of refined oil in China this year, and the biggest increase this year. The main reason for the rise in oil prices is the recent rise in international oil prices. Oil futures in New York rose more than 12 per cent, while brent futures rose more than 10 per cent from late march to the same price.
But the sharp rise in oil prices has had little effect on prices. Energy research institution zhongyu information data monitoring model, according to the current domestic refined oil pricing petrol and diesel up achieve 2.62%, average pricing or influence on April CPI is close to 0.013%. Despite the rising cost of fuel will price form thrust to the society, but in March of this year China's refined oil price was lowered twice, and the present main food prices continue to present the downward trend, which means running domestic prices will remain stable situation in the future.
Since last year, China has experienced eight rounds of refined oil price adjustment, which raised three times, cut, twice, three times a petrol and diesel prices have fallen by 65 yuan per ton.
Xinhua (daqing) international oil information center of the national product oil price index is running results show that in the week, on May 3, report closed cycle average price of 92 # gasoline by 6537 yuan/ton, the previous reporting period fell 65 yuan/ton (us $0.05 per litre); The average price of a diesel oil price of 0 # has been closed at 5,680 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan/ton (0.03 yuan/litre) from the previous report period. Overall, the average price of gasoline and diesel fell in China, driving down the price index of refined petroleum products nationwide. Jiang bing, an analyst at the center, said the domestic market had been slow to recover because of the need for oil, and that the market was weak and trading was thin.
International markets, the American petroleum institute (API) has released data show that as of April 28 in the week, the U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.158 million barrels to 528.3 million barrels, Cushing 215000 barrels of crude oil inventories, the news for the international oil prices, is expected to maintain short-term price shocks.
International energy research institution AnXunSi energy and strategy research center director li li said that the recent geopolitical storm suddenly, such as the Syrian air attack, the us and the DPRK dispute, such as oil were pushing up prices as strategic war readiness material. At the same time, the organization of petroleum exporting countries (Opec) plans to reassess whether the deal will be extended for six months at a monitoring meeting in May. The signal from all sides is that Opec's production cuts are likely to be prolonged, raising the price of international oil.
Li believes that there is more uncertainty in the second quarter and that international oil prices are expected to be more volatile. However, the current global oil supply is in a stage of supply exceeds demand, and a strong America's shale oil industry recovery is expected to appear irrational international oil prices will not continue to rise.
The shale oil industry has a repressive effect on oil prices. Anhui merchants futures Ye Han chemical analyst thinks, American shale oil costs about $50 a barrel, once the international oil prices more than the cost price of shale oil, shale oil production will rise. There has been a significant increase in shale oil drilling in the us recently. Oil prices will be slow to rise after $55 a barrel, and the prospect of a sharp rise in oil prices above $60 a barrel is unlikely.
Geopolitical risks aggravate domestic oil reserves and seize the opportunities
Experts suggest that we seize the opportunity to accelerate the development of China's strategic petroleum reserve. Lin boqiang, director of the center for energy economic cooperation innovation at xiamen university, said China's strategic crude reserves have been slow to advance. The year 2016 is a rare period of low international oil prices, which should have been a big boost to the strategic oil reserve, but it is not clear at the moment. Now the international oil prices doubled in the first quarter of last year, and in the long run, international oil prices back above $60 a barrel, $80 in May, China needs to accelerate the strategic reserves.
China imported 38.95 million tons of crude oil in March, a record high, according to the latest data from the general administration of customs. China imported 105 million tons of crude oil in the first quarter of this year, up 15 percent from a year ago, and the import amount was 281.55 billion yuan, up 89.4 percent year on year.
"The geopolitical situation is not optimistic now, and the oil price is still low, still in time." Boqiang Lin and other experts said, China's crude oil import demand amplification, crude oil import dependence has exceeded 65%, from the perspective of energy security, still need to further speed up the pace of China's crude oil reserves.
International oil prices fell below $30 a barrel in the first quarter of last year, hitting a 12-year low. Oil prices are already above $50 a barrel this year, and brent is above $55 a barrel. As a major importer of crude oil, the cost of crude oil import in our country has increased sharply year on year. In the first quarter of this year, the unit price of crude oil was up 64.7 per cent year-on-year.
Experts believe that, in the short term, accelerating the strategic reserve of crude oil will have an immediate effect on our energy security. At present, China's petroleum reserve management problems with multiple management, low degree of marketization, out of both, easy to miss opportunities, at the same time, the necessary storage facilities construction lags behind, also affect the large-scale development of oil reserves. Experts suggest that innovation and management mechanism should be improved as soon as possible. In the long run, on the one hand, to further enrich our country crude oil import structure, to avoid excessive dependence on middle eastern oil, on the other hand, to order to promote clean energy substitution, reducing fossil energy use.
We will improve our international voice
We will improve the efficiency of the domestic chemical industry
Experts in pricing in international markets say that the preparation of crude oil futures in China has matured and called for a timely launch. Energy economics and strategic research center of fudan university, deputy director of the standing wuri wave that international oil prices sharply increased financial attributes, complicated geopolitical situation, the international oil price volatility increases, increasing the risk of economic operation. Our country need to seek higher voice in the crude oil price in the market, suggested that accelerate the construction of crude oil futures market in China, make the oil and gas trading center who has international influence.
Russia's fight for international oil pricing is worth learning. Anhui merchants futures Shao Ji chief macro strategy analyst thinks, over the years, Russia has been trying to establish competed and brent crude oil futures market, hope the ruble was used as currency, but the face of difficulties, some of these issues is also the Chinese market is facing difficulties, such as the middle network company also did not realize the true sense networks independent, upstream suppliers are still highly monopoly. There is still a long way to go in the process of market reform in Russia, both experience and lesson.
In addition, experts suggest accelerating the reform of oil monopoly enterprises and enhancing the international competitiveness of the chemical industry in China. Oil is called "the mother of the commodity", and the competition in the upstream of the petrochemical industry in China is not sufficient, and the cost of many industries downstream is bound to increase.
Ye Han expert thinks, such as petroleum and chemical upstream resources highly concentrated in the hands of a handful of monopoly, the upstream industry lack of competition, the downstream industry competition is extremely tragic, mainly processed enterprise corporation is given priority to. Because of this, the upstream monopoly enterprise reform is necessary to accelerate, not only cost issues relating to the downstream enterprise survival, also relates to the state of the economy as a whole production system efficiency can be continuously optimized.