International crude oil prices remain low, on the basis of the domestic energy security, the main domestic oilfield production and present decline in crude oil production in our country
Signs of China's energy consumption structure has not changed in the short term, low cost of new energy technology no breakthrough, resulting in China's crude imports will continue to remain high
Looking ahead to 2017, China's oil demand will continue to slow, crude oil imports grew slightly, oil and crude oil, resulting in increasing external dependency
Released recently, the general administration of customs data show that China's crude oil imports in January of 34.03 million tons, up 27.5% from a year earlier. At the same time, our country product oil exports in January, 3.04 million tons of refined oil products export growth. On the one hand, China's increasing imports of crude oil, crude oil rose year by year, external dependency causes oil external dependency will exceed 65%. Refined petroleum products, on the other hand, a surge in net exports, a into a work of counting?
Crude oil imports increase is not hard to understand. In simple terms, the international crude oil prices remain low, and their development of crude oil import crude oil is better than "cost-effective", therefore, on the basis of the domestic energy security, the main domestic oilfield production, showed a trend of decline in China's crude oil production, appear even negative growth. Therefore, our country crude oil external dependency is rising year by year.
At the same time, our country's existing strategic crude oil reserve is not enough, the country's energy consumption structure shows no sign of change in the short term, low cost of new energy technology no breakthrough, it also led to China's crude imports will continue to remain high.
Boqiang Lin, director of the China energy research center of xiamen university, points out that from the current our country oil may also further improve the external dependency. Low oil prices period should make the most of foreign oil resources, which is oil strategic needs.
But at the same time, the product exports rising? "This is mainly related to China's oil refining industry overcapacity." China petroleum university professor Liu Yijun pointed out that the oil refining capacity need layout in advance, in the our country economy high speed development, oil demand is expected to keep growing and growing, the construction of the lianhua ability are advanced. Instead, as the global economic slowdown, China's oil consumption demand slows, the original capacity of the construction of the advanced into excess capacity.
Last year, for example, in 2016, the reform of supply side effect, overall slowdown in investment growth, economic transformation and upgrading, and high-speed, new energy vehicles is a combination of factors such as rapid development, product oil consumption growth range down. The apparent consumption of refined petroleum products is 313 million tons, is down 1.0% from, growth is down 6.2% in 2015. But last year, our country product oil production steady growth, of about 345 million tons, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year, the market supply more relaxed. Among them, the economic fundamentals such as weak demand slowdown, diesel oil, diesel oil production was negative. Refined oil glut on the market resources, and it appears the net export growth.
In 2016, on the other hand, with the devil "two rights" to continue to let go, to rise also makes the domestic oil market competition. Nearly two years the Chinese government to private oil refining enterprise implements the policy tilt, concentrated into more than 70 million tons of crude oil import quota, the domestic oil market competition intensifying, in 2016 China's crude oil import growth surge, momentum in 2017.
"Because of the international crude oil prices remain low, the domestic refined oil of excess, the ministry of finance and national tax administration of the export product full credit, VAT export tax refund rate reached 17%, it also has stimulative effect to the product export." Liu Yijun said.
In 2016 the ministry of finance and taxation jointly issued the "on how to improve the mechanical and electrical notice, refined petroleum products and other products of export tax rebates, approved by the state council, since November 1, 2016, raising fuel (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), and other products of export tax rebates to 17% VAT. In addition to do processing trade exports of refined oil products shall be exempted from VAT and consumption tax, export in feed processing trade and general trade way of the above three kinds of oil products also do not need the VAT, only need to impose consumption tax.
Experts point out that, looking ahead to 2017, China's oil demand will continue to slow, crude oil imports grew slightly, oil and crude oil, resulting in increasing external dependency. Oil demand growth will be negative growth to slow growth last year, gasoline and kerosene, respectively, in the medium and high speed growth, diesel demand continues to fall, loose degree between supply and demand is widening.