On January 8, 2017, Beijing institute of technology in energy and environmental policy research center was held in Beijing 2017 "energy economy forecast and prospect research conference", released "the supply side reform under the background of China's energy economy outlook, the outlook for 2017 oil industries and outlook etc six studies.
International oil prices as a whole in 2016 presented by low prices gradually rise, from around $30 a barrel in early began to rise, due to low demand increase, supply end, supply and demand situation makes since mid-march, fuel prices in the $40 a barrel - smooth fluctuations between $50 a barrel.
Among them, although have U.S. crude oil inventories increased continuously makes oil prices fell slightly, briefly fell below $40 a barrel, but "good news", non-opec countries reduce yield 1 million barrels a day, and at the end of the production agreements have more strong support for oil prices. As of December 31, 2016, Brent oil prices from $26.01 a barrel to $54.56 a barrel, WTI oil prices from a low of $26.19 a barrel to $52.99 a barrel, is relatively low or respectively increased by $28.55 a barrel and $26.80 a barrel.
"2017 international crude oil price analysis and trend prediction, the report author Lv Xin believes that in 2017, the world's oil supply and demand gap, demand exceeds supply growth, supply and demand situation in reverse continued.
In 2017, according to a report from the fundamentals perspective, benefit from the United States, steady economic development, the global economic downturn in marginally in stabilizing; OPEC countries agree on cuts, the world oil supply and demand of improving or will cause oil prices rose slightly further. From the demand side, the world oil demand rose slightly on the overall situation; On the supply side, OPEC countries headed by Russia and non-opec production agreement countries can implement smoothly, become the key factors influencing the world oil supply, if production is successful, global oil supply growth in 2017 will be significantly reduced; Considering the influence of other OECD countries, the global crude oil inventories will appear better progressly.
Report also said that in 2017 the fundamentals on the one hand, form a consensus forecast oil prices rose slightly; On the other hand, it enhances the oil market risk, increases the likelihood of international oil price fluctuations.
Crude oil market supply and demand situation in 2017 will be affected by at the end of the multinational deals, investors or will continue to the end of 2016 a strong bullish trend, this will boost oil prices in 2017.
Based on the analysis of crude oil fundamentals and non-fundamental Lv Xin argues that under the effect of various factors are integrated, Brent, 2017 WTI price decreases obviously, the two cities international crude oil price volatility, a slight rise. Brent, WTI is expected the average price was $60 a barrel of crude and $62 a barrel, the price fluctuation range for $55 a barrel - $65 a barrel.