China petroleum institute, vice President of the economic and technological Liu Chaoquan on November 26, on China's reform and development of oil and gas peak BBS, said the economy of oil consumption is abate, the future China's oil demand will keep 2% - 3% of slow growth, a peak around 2030.
Liu Chaoquan said, slow growth in future oil demand in China will remain, refining capacity continues to increase, will drive China's oil demand to maintain growth momentum.Consider alternative energy sources, the benchmark scenario, in 2020 and 2030, China's oil consumption will reach 608 million tons and 680 million tons respectively, in 2015-2020 and 2020-2030, the average annual growth rate of 2.4% and 1.1%, respectively.
Among them, the Chinese oil consumption will continue to present low growth, low consumption, low pollution of "three low" developing trend, product quality will be improved.At the same time, the oil consumption growth will continue to divide, "high" gas much wood low coal has become increasingly obvious.
Liu Chaoquan believes that the overall judgment, gas medium and long-term demand in China will continue to grow, but growth will be stepped down.Kerosene, driven by demand, kerosene consumption will maintain sustained and rapid growth.With diesel oil, industrial transformation, the commodity demand growth, transport demand tends to decline, diesel consumption has entered a plateau.
Loose Liu Chaoquan also said that the future Chinese petroleum products supply and demand, exports (especially diesel exports) will be normalized and scale.In addition, represented by natural gas and electricity of alternative energy sources will speed up development.